that's why people should pay a lot of attention to this and these court fights. >> there's a real question in my mind if the president is saying one thing and his supporters are believing that but it is clear he lost, do republicans toss him overboard and does that create so much pressure where they say one thing and do something else. we're all going to be reading axios a.m. in just a little bit. you can sign up at axios.com. that was "way too early" for a friday morning. "morning joe" starts now. we know who he admires. he admires putin, kim jong-un, erdogan in turkey. he admires people who are per p per pep chaiting their role in government. but i remind him, you are not in north korea, you are not in turkey, you are not in russia,

mr. president, and you are not in saudi arabia, you are in the united states of america, it is a democracy. i have a pretty good idea of the method of his madness and what he might do to undermine the constitution. he's trying to have the constitution of the united states swallow clorox. >> that he is. and his apologists. it's really -- it's fascinating really. you have a president doing what no president has ever done before, and you have his apologists say, at, i don't know, "the washington journal" editorial page this morning going those democrats are freaking out. of course the president shouldn't do this. but the democrats are freaking out, they're going crazy. this really hurts american democracy so he shouldn't do it. but those democrats. willie, oh my god. it's like democrats talked about

herbert hoover for 50 years after herbert hoover was president. poor, poor hillary clinton. long after we are gone the three remaining republicans who were elected to dog catcher in rural mississippi will be blaming the outbreak on the common tick on hillary clinton in 2070. it is really sad and pathetic. it also explains -- we're going to show some polls, willie. it also explains why this party is getting beaten so badly right now with a month before the election. >> we'll walk through a bunch of polls that show -- we talked about the national spread being 10 points between biden and trump. but if you look state by state swing states and states that democrats probably long ago

didn't think were swing states getting tied in some cases there's reason for concern. you're right. they're going back to hillary clinton. they want hillary clinton to be the nominee. they're trying to pin this on hillary clinton this talk about elections. it's amazing. >> unbelievable. >> the president is still at his rallies doing the lock her up chant, talking about the emails. you get the sense he would like to replay 2016 and he's struggling to find his footing against joe biden. >> yes. this is about as effective as those asia reunion tours where they sing the line "and now you find yourself in '82". we're not in '82. we're not in 2016. hillary clinton is not president of the united states. hillary clinton is not the first president in the history of this great republic, to refuse to

guarantee a peaceful transition of power. here's the amazing thing, willie. it's kind of crazy if you think about it. the really stupid jackassery going on out there by people trying to stay close to the president of the united states where they don't realize what they write on editorial pages, what they tweet on their tweet machines. what they say on their internet like sites and -- i don't know whatever you call those things, podcas podcasts, those are forever. like those are forever. so those words are going to be with them forever. and it just doesn't look good. you know, defending a president -- >> you know who really is sort of the winner in sort of the

sweep stakes for trying to make nothing of something very significant. again, a president who refuses to answer whether he will have a peaceful transfer of power had to be ben sasse. you know, the man of great public virtue ben sasse. he'll let you know he's a man of great public virtue, he always has. did he say what john thune said? no, he didn't. john thune was courageous enough to say we want a peaceful transfer of power. john cornyn also, straightforward, said it. even mitch mcconnell said we're going to have a peaceful transfer of power. ben sasse, he just says crazy things. he just says crazy things. like donald trump is telling a knock knock joke. it really is disappointing.

but again, that stays with him, that stays with "the washington journal" editorial page. it stays with other people in defense of the president acting like a dictator. that stays with them forever. but willie, we'll go ahead and open this thing up to everybody else. mika is not here. and alex is yelling in my ear. i was just thinking maybe we could talk baseball, we can talk "30 rock," we can talk about peacock or do you want to get to -- >> i'm thinking of alex in control, he's freaking out. we'll save it for later. with us this morning we have katty kay, michael steele, kasie hunt -- >> she's doing an incredible

job. >> it's so good. >> seriously. an incredible job. willie, let me ask you -- >> i'm sorry to report -- yeah. >> go ahead. >> i was just going to say that unfortunately way too early is no longer a yankees friendly program, willie. i apologize. you have bill karins still representing you, but i grew up with a love of the baltimore orioles, which has been a journey, but that also means you grow up really hating the yankees, sorry about that. >> i didn't realize that. we have to reevaluate this. the way too early brand stands for al east red sox yankees talk and nothing more. >> exactly. i hate to say this, i think we have a brewers fan with us, jim

vandehei, what's that about? how are the brewers doing this year? >> we're still in the hunt. if we can sweep the cardinals we can make it to the playoffs. and we do it the real way. playoffs. >> this is kasie's fault, she brought baseball up, we didn't. let's hop into the polls. we have a lot to show you. battleground state polls, let's start in pennsylvania where the latest franklin and marshall poll finds joe biden and president trump statistically tied within that poll's nearly 8 point margin of error, biden at 48% trump at 42. fox news giving biden a 7 point lead in pennsylvania, 51 to 44. in ohio a tie, biden at 48,

trump at 47. fox news has biden with a five point lead. in iowa, a statistical tie there with biden at 45% president trump at 42%. and in georgia, "the new york times" poll shows biden and trump tied at 45%. the second poll this week that shows that state tied. in nevada, biden ahead by 11 points, 52 to 41. and texas, president trump and joe biden in a statistical tie, donald trump leading 46 to 43, within the margin of error there. the latest quinnipiac poll has president trump up in texas by 5 points, 50 to 45. joe, take your crack at all of those, where do you want to start. >> obviously we've seen over the past cutouple weeks since kenos,

what's happened, joe biden has pulled ahead in wisconsin in some polls 7, 8 points. so the states everybody has been talking about, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and really ohio wasn't a part of this. ohio and iowa comfortably fell in donald trump's campaign, but all five of those states across the upper midwest have obviously been part of the heartland battle. but you look at these polls. let's start in pennsylvania, biden up 48 to 42 in one poll six points. the fox news poll biden up 7 points there. then you go to ohio, this is a real surprise, ohio and iowa firmly for donald trump and there you have biden up, again statistically tie, 48, 47. and the fox news poll, biden up

5, 50 to 45. obviously, if ohio is close on election night, this is going to be a blow out and joe biden is going to likely win by a landslide, if ohio is close. iowa, 45 to 42. again, a state that, you know, trump people told me a year ago wasn't even going to be close, that's a three point lead, 45 to 42. then you go beyond that, michael steele, look at georgia. georgia tied 45-45. nevada, which the trump people went to because they're desperate to pick up another state because they're losing states they never thought they would lose. he goes to nevada and his numbers just absolutely plummet. he's losing there by 11 points, 52 to 41. who knows, maybe going out there acting crazy, putting people's

lives at risk. i don't know. maybe that's not a 90/10 issue breaking your way. maybe that actually hurts you. and then in texas, we have a couple of polls, michael steele in texas, like all the other polls we've seen this year that are basically a dead heat. donald trump up 46 to 42 in the q poll, but michael, that's a statistical tie. so as you're looking through these numbers and you look for good news for donald trump, man if the i were running his campaign i wouldn't know where to go, iowa slipping out of site, georgia, texas still tied. you're not going to pick up nevada, stop pretending you're going to pick up nevada. it's not going to happen. then ohio. obviously pennsylvania looks like biden is starting to make some space in pennsylvania. but i think of all the numbers

that stand out to me, it's the fox news poll number in ohio that has joe biden up five points in ohio. again, it's almost like the craziness of the past week hasn't helped him. >> so a couple of things there, joe, your analysis ohio in particular is spot on in terms of where this campaign not only is, but where it's trending and has been trending for quite some time. what i think contributes to some of the manic behavior of trump at this point, specifically his notion that all of a sudden now with more emphasis this election is going to be rigged. the internal numbers of the campaign are not just reflecting what you're seeing on these sort of broader big polls by fox and others but it's showing a trend that is troubling and problematic for the president. particularly when you look at the republican wall, iowa,

georgia, and a texas. and when you look at those states, texas should be a blow away for trump. i mean, this shouldn't be a conversation. >> it should be over. >> right. it shouldn't even be a conversation. same in iowa and georgia for that matter. what's happened is, as reflected in ohio, is that the voters are settling and have settled for some time away from trump. and trump has not done anything to broaden that base vote that he needs to hold these states in line. so the problem becomes even -- ohio is reflective of this, is even greater in places like missouri, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and nevada, where they were planning to create a new beachhead. so the polling out today, again a snapshot, we get it. but these are state polls, this

is not a national snapshot. these are state polls so this gives you a better sense, joe, of where the campaign is beginning to settle. and the wall that donald trump needed to breach is not only getting tougher to do so, it's getting higher and more difficult at every turn. >> so, jim, you come from packer country. let's talk about the midwest for a second here. after ruth bader ginsburg died, dave wassermann pulled out some polls which didn't surprise me at all but are pretty stark. i looked at them originally as being real concerns for candidates like joni ernst. this is what he wrote, although trump down played abortion in 2016 voters with mostly

pro-choice attitudes made up about a fifth of his support in battleground states in iowa 25% of donald trump's supporters in iowa identified themselves as pro-choice. this iowa poll taken mainly after ruth bader ginsburg's death shows donald trump down now three points in iowa. florida 24%. pennsylvania 24% pro-choice voters who voted for donald trump and, of course, we see what's happening in pennsylvania. but let's go to ohio. in this ohio poll by fox news that was taken days after ruth bader ginsburg's death. donald trump now down five points in ohio, that's a state where 20% of voters that voted for donald trump in 2016 considered themselves, pro-choice voters. and the prospect.

the very real prospect now that donald trump is going to ensure that roe v. wade is overturned, i've seen it. voters won't make that the top issue if -- for the most part on the democratic side some do. but if you're really at that point where donald trump is going to be responsible for the overturning of a 50-year pro-choice precedence, that's going to have an impact. and look at the bidpolls where biden is moving ahead, seems to be the case. >> a cutchouple ways to look at this, if you talk to strategists on both sides, both saying there's a chance to win but only one can win in a blowout, that's biden. you've gone through all the numbers, all the states that could easily go for biden if you're looking at the numbers, i

think obviously that's what democrats are rooting for. another way to look at it, go down each of the polls you showed, almost all of them are in the margin of error despite the things that donald trump has done and said, and the number you have on your screen, 204,000 people dead because of the coronavirus and he's still within the margin of error in all of these states so it will become a turnout battle. i think the worst possible outcome for the country is a razor thin margin on election day. we cannot emphasize enough about donald trump is saying the last couple days i may not accept the results of the election and turn over the federal government to joe biden. a lot of the states you talked about, pennsylvania, wisconsin, all of them are having disputes either legislatively or legally about how are you going to count votes? how is your vote going to be

counted and validated? and the worst thing when you have all this misinformation, and all this partisanship flowing through the system would be people not trusting the outcome of the vote. so all of those things being within a margin of error, it does give donald trump a chance. the fact he's still sitting at 42, 43%. if he's right, he would say, what you're missing in those polls is 3 to 4% of people who are going to hang up the phones, they're not going to tell you what they think, but at the end of the day they're the ones who are going to turn out and vote for me because they like the economic side of my policies and tolerate my behavior because they like the economic consequences of it. i think the polls are interesting, i think the bigger story, the one you guys are going to hit onto are his comments about i might not trust the results of the election. even though republican senators are saying we will, this has

never happened before in our history. i cannot think of a single time in history that a sitting president has said you the public may not be able to trust the vote. that's all democracy has. it's what made us great from beginning to end. if you say no longer you can't trust it and you know that he has this ability to get people to think what he thinks. at least 40% of the country moves with him when he believes something. i don't think it's hyperbolic for us to plan what happens if 40% of the country doesn't believe the results. >> and katty, the president reiterated the position yesterday saying he's not sure we can have an honest election. he won't answer the question about honoring the results and transferring the power if he were to lose the election. so the answer to the question of why he's doing all that lies in these polls. if texas is tied, if georgia is tied, if he's tied in iowa, he has real reason for concern and

to sow doubt about the outcome. what do you see when you look at these numbers put together with the national polling of this week that shows a ten point spread in a couple of different polls between joe biden and donald trump. what does this signal to you about five and a half weeks to election day? >> we've had the most tumultuous election year i can remember. we had the pandemic, then the black lives matter movement, then law and order, then fires outwest, then hurricanes in the east, then we had the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg. and what happens? the polls stay the same. the actual race between joe biden and donald trump doesn't seem to change very much. whatever is happening, whatever external factors are going on. so donald trump is looking at these polls, looking particular at georgia, at texas i imagine as the race is tightening, and thinking what can i do to minimize people's votes.

we don't know whether donald trump is really planning after election day to hang on whatever happens to the white house and refuse to leave. he's probably planning some kind of litigation if there's a close race but in a sense he's already doing the job he wants to do, which is depressing voter turnout. because there have been polls shown when democrats believe the vote is going to be fraudulent or they believe it's going to be stolen in some way, it's more lick li likely to make democrats not turn out to vote rather than republicans. look at what president putin wants to do when he meddles with elections. what he really wants to do is sow doubt about the process. he wants to undermine the democratic process itself. he wants it to make it look weak and chaotic and corrupt. when donald trump says i'm not

going to respect it or i may not leave or there's going to be a fight. he's doing almost exactly the same thing, sowing doubt in people's minds. and then you think am i going to turn out and vote, it's a long line, i have to be at work. there's the coronavirus, i'm not sure it's safe. and anyway, the president said it's going to be corrupt and not going to work. maybe i don't want to vote. >> you know, kasie hunt, i was talking about ohio being a big surprise that joe biden is ahead by five points in ohio. again, that's certainly just a snapshot of the electorate, just one moment in time, but that one moment in time happens to be immediately after the death of ruth bader ginsburg and donald trump and mitch mcconnell saying they were going to shove through another federalist society nominee. which again, if you look at the swing states and the numbers doesn't seem to work out very well for them in the end.

especially because the areas, and i know you've been reporting on this all year, the areas that donald trump and republicans have the biggest problem are the loss of suburban voters, women, more educated voters. but here's another state if you're on the trump campaign, they should have the alarms flashing. that's iowa. can we put up those iowa numbers, alex, that show donald trump losing 45 to 42%. again, let's just say this is in the margin of error of iowa. 45 to 42%. those are likely voters, ruth bader ginsburg died on the 18th, so the night of the 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, five days they talked to iowa voters. you take this poll in tandem with ann's poll this week that shows joni ernst losing by three

points and here you have a state that was supposed to be locked down. when i asked a year ago basically the people running trump's campaign, how about iowa? they started laughing, it's a blow out. we don't have to go to iowa. we won it by nine points last time. we'll win it by double digits this time. they're deadlocked in iowa. talk about a canary in a coal mine. i know all of these things are just snapshots of what's happening today and yes, maybe people may be afraid to say they're voting if for donald trump. and i understand why you would be ashamed to say you're voting for donald trump. i can give you like 300 reasons why you shouldn't admit it publicly. i understand that. i'd be ashamed too if i were you voting for donald trump. but even if that's the case, kasie, they're still underperforming by about nine points in iowa.

spread that out across the map. it's just not good news any way you cut it. >> it's not. the iowa numbers have been the ones that i have been watching the most carefully partly because it's hard to do these state polls, the numbers sometimes are all over the place. ohio i think is a good example. we talked about arizona polling yesterday. iowa is the center of the political universe. you have people like ann seltzer who give the gold standard of polling, people who understand what's going on. i think about how this intersects with the senate map and the way things have been nationalized those two things go together. the numbers out of iowa are stunning to me. the fact that we're talking about whether joni ernst could win or lose. as you pointed out the fact that the trump campaign can't bank on iowa. if they can't bank on iowa, the

problem across the midwest is way worse than any of us thought it was likely to be at this stage. that's in large part because iowa has the proportion of the population made up of non-college white voters. those who have been the ones that tended to sting with donald trump the most. that number is higher in iowa. these numbers reflect that those people are not necessarily sticking with him. if this is the situation in iowa, what does that mean about what's going on in pennsylvania? in potentially ohio. in wisconsin, which we thought was going to be the center of the universe. could still be but seems to be breaking for joe biden at this stage in the game. i think there are very really questions. and jim touched on this, we know this could be an incredibly close election, we could be fighting this out for weeks. there are signs that there is the possibility, when i have conversations on the hill this has been raised with me, this

could be a sweep across the map. you could be looking at all of these republican senators falling down, whether it's montana, iowa, obviously north carolina is going to be the center of it, maine, susan collins, that instead of looking at individual races on the night we'll look at a sweep and potential blowout across the map. that is the worst case scenario for somebody like a mitch mcconnell, but if you read in to what they're saying, the messaging they have started to turn to trying to tell voters you don't want one party rule, you should be concerned of democrats being in charge of everything. that tells me they're concerned about voters being in charge of everything, that's about president trump's weakness in these places. >> joe just to put a fine point on this, to give our viewers a perspective why we're on these states. in 2016, donald trump won iowa by almost 10 points, won texas by nine points, won ohio by

eight points and he won georgia by five points. as of this morning, a lot of time to go still, he is statistically tied in four states where he ran up big numbers in 2016. >> yeah. and -- yeah. a lot of time to go until november the 3rd. and as i don't know whether it was harold mcmillen. katty maybe you can help me, was it mcmillen or prime minister wilson that said a week is a lifetime? >> i thought it was wilson, but somebody has to check us. >> willie, a week is a lifetime in politics, anything can happen. we certainly found that last -- four years ago with james

comey's letter, never saw that coming. boy did that change things. anything can happen. if you're just looking at the numbers, one of the real challenges if if you're the trump team, where do you put your money? you have to win wisconsin but you're behind in wisconsin, might be a waste of money. you're behind in michigan. you're behind now in pennsylvania. you're behind in most states. florida was supposed to be easier. georgia, texas, iowa was supposed to be easier for you. arizona was supposed to be easier for you. and all of these states look like they're slipping away. i've done a look at the maps and i don't know what you've seen willie when you do. a couple of weeks ago i looked at a map and best case scenario 270 biden, 268 trump. donald trump can squeak this out, if there's a tilt of two

points he could win it. but as kasie said there's a likelihood of a landslide on the other side. one of those elections and republicans know it, they've been talking quietly about it, if things do break joe biden's way, they can get wiped out like they were in 2008 with barack obama's election. they could get wiped out like they were in 1964, how democrats were wiped out in 1980. so it's close either way. but, willie, again we look at iowa, he won it by almost 10 points, and it's now basically a statistical tie with biden up by three. now it's such a bad sign for him. and those midwest states, we saw it before willie, they kind of go together. there's an old saying i think it was william henry harrison that said it -- what are you smirking about?

>> because i don't know what's coming here but i like it already: you know william henry harrison said this, as go brooklyn, so good france. >> there you go. >> well, in this case as goes des moines probably goes scranton. so when you see iowa and wisconsin and michigan and pennsylvania and now ohio all breaking joe biden's way, that's suggesting that, at least for now -- yes, at least for now -- something is happening out there in the electorate. >> no question about it. it's the reason donald trump is ramping up the claims that the election will not be free and fair. and he's giving reason for people to doubt the outcome. the numbers they see on election night and beyond. we'll show you the republican party's new outbreak of hillary clinton what aboutism in this election.

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win, lose our draw in this election, will you commit here today for a peaceful transfer of power after the election? there has been writing a little, there's been rioting in many cities across this country in your so-called red and blue states. will you commit to making sure there's a peaceful transfer of power. >> we have to see what happens. i've been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster. >> i understand that, but people are rioting. do you commit to making sure there's a peaceful transfer of -- >> get rid of the ballots and there won't be a peaceful transfer. there'll be a continuation.

the ballots are out of control and you know it and the democrats know it better than anybody else. >> that is president trump on wednesday. yesterday the press secretary told reporters the president, quote, will accept the results of a free and fair election. and vice president pence said he and the president will accept, quote, free and fair election results. mitch mcconnell tweeted, the winner of the november 3rd election will be inaugurated on january 20th. the number two in the senate echoed that sevenntiment but th were a number of republicans who look to blame hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton just a week ago or so told joe biden do not accept the results of the election under any circumstances. but you don't ask her that question. you only ask me the question. >> well, i think that the president will accept the

result. we've got to make sure that it's fair and i would ask you the same question, hillary clinton said joe biden should not accept the result of the election under any circumstances. i ask the same question of every democrat if they think if it's a fair election, will they support the outcome of it. >> but she's not the candidate. the president is the candidate. >> how many people have you asked on the democratic side if they would support the election? >> i mean, democrats have already obviously made it clear they don't intend to do that. first of all, they didn't do it four years ago, obviously. they used the power of the presidency during the transition to spy on the incoming president. now, of course, you know, the motto is for the democrats is that joe biden should never concede the election no matter what. >> mr. leader, what do you plan to do if president trump refuses to engage in a peaceful transfer

of power if he loses the election? >> president trump will peacefully come to be sworn in again. it'll be a smooth transition regardless of the outcome. i'm concerned of what i'm hearing on the other side of the aisle. i'm concerned that the democrat nominee -- you asked me a question if i may. the democrat nominee, hillary clinton -- >> she's not the nominee. >> the last time the democrat nominee from the last election went on television telling the current nominee never concede. >> that was our own kasie hunt in an extraordinary exchange with kevin mccarthy, republican house leader. his concern lies with hillary clinton and not the current president of the united states. so what did hillary clinton say? what are they talking about here? >> first, i would just say,

willie, that they're talking about hillary clinton because it seems like they would prefer to be running against her but also because they don't have anything to point to that joe biden has said that would generate this problem. hillary clinton advised biden not to concede until all of the votes are counted. this is what she said in an interview. >> say biden wins what do you think trump will do? >> look, i think they have a couple of scenarios that they're looking toward. one is messing up absentee balloting, they believe that helps them, so that they then get maybe a narrow advantage in the electoral college on election day. because remember, we've seen a couple of cases, like in wisconsin, where they did everything they could to mess up voting, but because courts had ordered absentee ballots to be

counted if they were postmarked on election day, democrats actually won some important races there. >> at least we know more about what they're going to do and, you know, joe biden should not concede under any circumstances because i think this is going to drag out and eventually i do believe he will win if we don't give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is. >> so, of course, that about election night the counting of the ballots, joe. >> so what you're saying kasie is, she never said never concede. she said, don't concede on election night, don't concede until we count all the votes, is that correct? >> that's my understanding. and you saw there that she was talking through the scenarios where the trump campaign, as we know, potentially laying the

ground work for litigation as these votes are all counted. some of the earlier counts we may see likely to show and potentially that president trump has an advantage on election night itself. and, you know, she came under criticism, and perhaps rightly so, for not conceding on election night in 2016. she conceded the morning after. but democrats, don't forget, are not necessarily thinking about 2016 in this context. they're thinking about 2000 when al gore went out and conceded and it was seen later as a major mistake, because democrats feel the votes weren't counted in a way they think was accurate in florida and there were some mistakes made by the gore campaign back then. obviously as we have outlined throughout the show this morning, the way in which these ballots are going to get counted, the potential issues with the pandemic, all of the various states the way they govern these different things. some states have never grappled

with mail-in balloting before. they don't start counting the ballots they received before election day. your home state of florida they start counting the ballots, i believe it's 22 some days before election day. the democrats i talked to were saying hillary clinton wasn't saying don't ever concede the election to donald trump. i would say also joe, she's not the democratic nominee. what is joe biden saying about this? anderson cooper asked, would you support a peaceful transfer of power? biden said, sure. i want the votes counted but in the end if the result is not me we'll have a peaceful transfer of power. >> i keep talking about tom rick's great book "first principles" coming out. and he was talking about the

time when george washington had to decide whether he was going to run for a third term or whether he was going to go back to his farm after he saved the country. and rick said that's the ultimate test of a democracy. that's the ultimate test of a constitutional republic. and no one had ever given up power willingly before in america. because there had never been a president before in america. so george washington making that decision voluntarily was one of the great defining moments in american history. and it began a 240-year history of a peaceful transfer of power. so the question does not go to hillary clinton any more than it goes to mookie betts. because neither hillary clinton nor mookie betts are president

of the united states. the question, which our constitutional republic rests on is whether the sitting president of the united states, like george washington and the other 43 presidents that followed him before donald trump, whether donald trump will peacefully allow there to be a peaceful transition of power. and what he said yesterday was that he wasn't going to answer that question. he said it'll be peaceful if we get rid of the ballots. all he said was, it'll be peaceful if i win by rigging the vote. so that's what this president said that no other president has said and that's why it's so dangerous. and yes, people can pretend that it's not. but again, your words are recorded for posterity. willie, quickly before we go to

michael steele. we must comment on -- steve, is that who donald trump called the majority leader? steve? >> kevin mccarthy yeah. >> yeah. kev kevin mccarthy. as i was looking at him, i was wondering if they were allowing him to eat with anything other than plastic forks, looks like he could hurt himself. did i ever tell you the lindsey graham story about when the lobbyist gave lindsey knives -- >> no. >> i never told you that? >> i don't think so. >> i thought i told you that story. lindsey just -- i'll tell you this because we're not on air. >> yeah. >> lindsey took a knife and he said, wow, this is sharp. and moved it across his finger and it just started bleeding. he cut himself. and then they had to like fix -- this is a long time ago. >> yeah.

put his hand in a blender, too. >> you know, he has not done that, but there are just some people you want to keep away from sharp objects, blenders that's a good point. kevin mccarthy looked like one of them there. it's crazy. so why don't you go to michael steele willie because i'm going to try to think of the lobbyist that did that and, of course, not reveal his name on the show. it's insane they were all handed, thom tillis, grassley, kevin mccarthy, they were all handed this same line to use, why don't you ask hillary clinton. well, because hillary clinton is not president of the united states. >> yeah. i mean, it's such an obvious point. i can't believe we're having this conversation but i guess we have to, michael steele. the idea that your first concern

when donald trump says reapedly that he may not respect the results and may not hand over power if he loses is to go after hillary clinton. you just completely exposed yourself to who you are. this is, as we've been saying all week, this is perhaps the easiest question for a politician of any party to answer. do you believe in the fundamental piece of our democracy that says there will be a peaceful transfer of power to the winner? if you can't answer that it's yes. you have to equivocate and talk about someone that was the nominee four years ago because you can't get to the current nominee, boy is that pathetic. >> it's beyond pathetic and it speaks volumes about how much hillary still resides in the heads of virtually every republican on capitol hill. and they don't need the

prompting from donald trump to go to the hillary thing and start talking about her. but it does expose going back to how we started this hour. why the numbers are showing what they're showing in states like iowa, georgia, texas. that the american people have seen this, and they've heard the platitudes, they've heard the excuses and they heard shifting the responsibility. at some point the american people want their leaders to account for what's happening. and when you have the president of the united states come out and say that we'll just get rid of the ballots and then we'll just have the transition that i want, which means that i win, that's unnerving. and i think you're going to see a further erosion in this space. along these lines because it's not enough to point back at hillary clinton in 2016. it's not enough to drone on and

on about her emails. you have investigations right now going on on capitol hill into what by republicans? what? stuff that happened that no one is talking about now, no one cares about, you're going to dredge this up. that's going to be your october surprise and you think that's going to help donald trump. the country has moved on, and these men are stuck in 2016. they're struck where trump is stuck. and they don't have the wherewithal, the capacity, the ability to think themselves out of it. trump is going on signing an executive order in which he's now going to give every american access who has preexisting conditions access to health care, while his administration is before the supreme court trying to get rid of the very thing he's writing an executive order on. and these folks on capitol hill, we're doing health care. so the country looks at this, and they go, okay.

you -- no sharp items for you guys. all right. no blenders -- >> exactly. >> -- no knives. >> exactly. no sharp items. no knives. if you're taking lindsey out, don't give him steak knives, it could be dangerous. by the way, mom and dad, be very careful kevin mccarthy when he comes home. no blenders. listen i'm going to tell you, it's friday, mika is not here. i'm relaxing. and i got alex in my ear going hey you want to focus. he thinks i'm like man any or something like that playing for the red sox. i'm focused. this is fascinating stuff. willie, before i really do focus. i'll get serious. is that not a fascinating

lindsey graham story? >> it's amazing. took it to the skin to verify his suspicion that the knife was sharp. >> the lobbyist told me it was nothing he'd ever seen, took it right to the skin. then they had to come, first aid, had to wrap that thing up. i heard a lot of great things about lindsey on trip, sometimes took too many at vivan, had to drag him off the plane. but alex wants many e to get serious. let's bring in state attorney dave aaronburg, we're talking about something serious here. i want to note while we're talking about polls and everything else, i want to remind everybody to look at the lower right hand, the death toll now up to 204,000 people. this is a country, again, that i

believe in american exceptionalism. we're at 204,000 deaths and that number continues to go up. the president continues to lie to you, he continues to lie about vaccines. he continues to run over the fda. his hhs secretary continues to run over the fda. they continue to run over the cdc, they continue to undermine the cdc's that is right. you have to give the cdc and the fda credit here. they are trying to get the facts out. same with dr. fauci, trying to get the facts out. even if rand paul is trying to spread lies and conspiracy theories every day. so we're at 204,000 and we're that high because of donald trump. history will show that. don't listen to bloggers whereby don't listen to donald trump. read the history books a few years from now. it's going to be very obvious because this is science they're going to be able to figure out just how responsible donald trump and his lies were for that. now let's bring in dave

aaronburg. dave, this a good time to take a turn and put on my serious face. because i asked you yesterday to look at the atlantic article that talked about how this could be the most dangerous election of all times. i had a couple of questions. one is, if donald trump contests the election and refuses to concede, refuses to leave the white house, who arrests him? same with the attorney general of the united states. if the attorney general of the united states works aggressively to obstruct the will of the people, who arrests the attorney general of the united states? again, we're having to war game this because, of course, those two especially are suggesting they're not going to leave. and finally, from that atlantic article, what are the legal challenges that you really see out there that we're going to be facing in the months after the election, after november the 3rd, if donald trump tries to

block the will of the people? >> good morning, joe. if biden wins, the moment that he takes the oath of office on january 20, 2021, is the moment that the trump presidency ends, regardless of whether trump attends the inauguration or not. so if he lingers in the white house, he can be removed by the secret service or other federal agents because he's a private citizen like everyone else, he can also be arrested for criminal trespass, he doesn't enjoy the memoranda that doesn't charge a sitting president. christopher wray may want to make the arrest himself. as far as bill barr, remember nixon's attorney general had to serve prison time because of obstruction of justice this could come after the election when there's a review of his activities and he could face federal charges based on his conduct.

we'll have to see. as far as the atlantic article, you know, i am less pessimistic than many about what's going to happen, because for those type of shenanigans to occur where the republican legislatures appoint their own electors to push forward trump regardless of what the public said. that would require number one a close election, which as you saw from the polls, looks like it may not happen. biden is ahead in recent polls in ohio, which counts its absentee ballots at the beginning. if biden can win in ohio, came over. it's a red state that counts absentee ballots right away. s same with florida. they count their ballots before the election. that's why mike bloomberg put $100 million in because he knows

if you win florida right away the gig is up. there are democratic governors in some of those swing states like pennsylvania, wisconsin, north carolina, michigan, even if the legislatures vote to install trump electors against the will of the people, the democratic governors can veto it. in those states they don't have enough republicans to override the veto. a lot of stuff has been tried before. remember 2000, the speaker of the house tried to install george w. bush electors while the recount was going. but it was john mckay who said no to that, he said the one good thing politicians are good at is self-preservation. finally, joe, the supreme court would have to like sanction this stuff. what's to say that the same supreme court that ruled 7-2 against trump on his taxes, including gorsuch and kavanaugh

who trump appointed, would roll over and allow these types of shenanigans to occur. they have lifetime appointment they don't need trump anymore. a lot of this controversy was started by a trump legal adviser who posted about the strategy. but they want us to talk about that. they want us to lose faith in our democracy. the best response to that is to vote. >> cankatty kay has a question you. >> that's what i was talking about earlier, you spelled out the reasons why this notion of a red mirage may not happen. there are enough states that count early and are used to counting that could get the elections could wanted. then you have the governors who may override any shenanigans the senate may try to put in place. do you think all of this is really just an attempt to suppress turnout on the democratic side by undermining

faith in the election? the president doesn't necessarily believe any of this is going to happen, but why not given how tight these polls are, why not just say anything you can to make people talk about this and then there will be some voters out there who say maybe it's not worth me standing in line on election day because it's not going to count on election day? >> you got it. i think part of the strategy is to discourage and demoralize democrats. it's a form of voter suppression. there's a lot of voter suppression out there. it's very real. you see it in florida with attempts to prevent ex-felons from voting. they're trying to make a criminal referral to the fbi because michael bloomberg is paying off court costs and fees to allow floelons to register a vote. we must be very careful when we do this to ourselves.

when we talk about all the shenanigans that the republicans are go to pull. my own mother insists, she has a legal wager at that, that biden will win the election but trump will remain in office. democrats have been beaten down so much. i think it's ptsd from the last election when we were certain the democrats were going to win and hillary clinton lost we're thinking of the worst case scenario. this is the kind of conversation that the trump team wants us to have. they want us to believe that nothing we can do can change the election, so why even bother? we must not fall into that trap. >> dave, great advice. thank you for the information you brought to us. i appreciate it. of course, if there is a deadlock, if the electors can't figure out if there's a tie, can't figure out who the next president of the united states is going to be, then the next

president of the united states is the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi. >> yeah. we're getting down the path to some crazy scenarios that may or may not play out but there's no question that donald trump is creating chaos about where this all lands. let's talk about where this race is. joining our conversation, columnist and editor, political analyst eugene robinson. former aid to the george w. bush white house elise jordan. national affairs analyst, executive editor of the recount mr. john heileman. and ceo of the messina group, jim messina. bbc's katty kay is still with us. mika has the morning off. should we dive into the polls in the battleground states? >> unless you have a lindsey graham story. >> i think you're holding those.

we'll do one every hour. let's do a week next week. we'll get it all cued up. so the polls just in, in pennsylvania the latest franklin and marshall college poll, joe biden and president trump statistically tied, 48-42 for biden. the fox news poll gives biden a seven point margin in pennsylvania, 51-44. ohio a tie, biden at 48%, president trump at 47%. fox news out of ohio has biden with a five point lead this, 50 to 45. in iowa, the race is tie with joe biden at 45%, donald trump at 42%. in the state of georgia. "the new york times" poll, shows the two candidates tied at 45%. that's the second this week that showed the race neck and neck in

a state president trump won by 5 points in 2016. in nevada joe biden ahead by 11 points now. 52 to 41. in the state of texas, the latest finds president trump and joe biden in a statistical tie, 46 to 43. there president trump won by nine points in 2016. and the latest quinnipiac poll has president trump up in texas by five points, 50 to 45%. joe? >> jim, a lot to look at here. none of it good for donald trump. if you look at texas and georgia, he's basically in neck and neck, tied. it's been like that for the past three or four months regardless of what's going on. nevada where the trump campaign is delusional, i believe, in thinking that they can win out there. this poll shows them down by 11 points. pennsylvania, obviously, joe biden up by six points and seven

points in two polls out this morning. but the two states i want to focus on. the heart of america, states that donald trump carried easily four years ago, ohio and high wi -- iowa. when i talk to a top campaign guy -- i'll say it, jared. when i talked to jared a year ago, i said what about iowa? he said, come on. we don't have to worry about iowa. no. we won it by nine, probably win it by 15 next time. here we are four weeks before the voting on november 3rd, and they're down three points in iowa in this poll. you have joni ernst down three points in an seltzer's poll, which is the gold standard for that state. and then you go to ohio, a state that donald trump just walked away with. and in ohio he's down five

points in the fox news poll. so if you look at -- this guy is underperforming by 10, 12 points from where he was in 2016 in these heartland states. >> the barn is burning and they can't figure out how to put it out. if you look at the mud westeidw states, these are states that the campaign is losing and biden hasn't spent money on the gro d ground. and for trump it's a problem because trump after wasting $800 million early in the campaign is out of money. so they have to contest states they have to have, like pennsylvania, like florida, like michigan and wisconsin. they're now bleeding in the base and if you're the campaign manager you wake up and say, whoa, now i have to spend money in states like ohio, like iowa

that they hadn't planned to. and there isn't enough time or money. that's genius of the biden campaign they're making trump spend time and resources in the united states. and he's taking these flyers on states he's not going to win like nevada, like minnesota where you see numbers come out that show biden pulling away in some of these cases. so the trump campaign has dual problems. we have base problems, states like ohio we just can't lose. if they lose ohio, iowa, this thing is over before we get to florida and the midwest. so the trump campaign is suffering from real problems sitting here less than six weeks out. >> you look at a fox news poll, john heileman, fox news poll in pennsylvania has donald trump down seven points to joe biden. the fox news poll in ohio has donald trump down five points in

ohio. i think the nevada poll -- is the nevada poll a fox news poll? yeah. has donald trump down 11 points in nevada. just looking at these fox news polls, john heileman, no good news for donald trump. you looked at -- you looked at the polls that have been out this morning, what's your takeaway and what are you hearing on the ground? >> well, joe, i'd say first of all, good morning and happy friday. second of all, donald trump who -- donald trump who has come to despise the fox news polls, a burr under his saddle all yearlong because they keep bringing back apparently accurate -- those are high quality polls at fox news and donald trump doesn't like them. they bring him bad news. remember the florida poll and the arizona poll and you and i were on the air and they looked

like outliers when we saw them. people were like who knows but we've now seen this wave of polling, and my take, it's been my sense this week, again being out and talking to people in battleground states and paying attention to the numbers coming in. my take away is the three words you said in the transition when you threw the question to me, no good news. there's not an iota of good news in the numbers because even the states the trump is leading in, he's leading not by much and they're states he should be leading by a lot. and this is the point in the campaign where -- look, texas is an insanely exparen sieensive p run for pennsylvania. no one would say joe biden should be running in texas. but you want to win these things, the biden campaign would

like to win the states you need to get to 270 and win them by a lot so there's not a lot of room for trump's pokery. but the fact that georgia, texas, ohio, iowa, are states that trump is now behind or only ahead within the margin of error means the biden campaign is in the position, especially with their financial lead, of just going -- drop a little money in georgia and make donald trump go and defend that territory. maybe drop a little money in texas. who knows if you're serious about it or not, you have the capacity to spread the map and make trump run around trying to defend places he never thought he'd have to defend late in the calendar. this is, you know -- the obama campaign was in this position a little bit in 2008 and when you see a campaign have that kind of advantage that it has all the money it needs to win the states

it needs and has money to force the other campaign to do things it doesn't want to do and doesn't really have the resources to do, that's a position -- that's the position you pray for as a candidate in these races. and it's especially the run -- it's beyond your wildest dreams if you're a challenger. that's where we are with joe biden. just a strong strategic position relative to the map. >> john mentioned the president's personal feelings about the fox news polls that we showed you, showing the president down in nevada, ohio, pennsylvania. one minute ago the president was tweeting about it, looking at the polls we were showing, going on on how the polls were wrong in 2016 and they were going to change pollsters and didn't, they oversample, something. so he's upset with the fox news polls. >> i love that summary. something, something. >> he wants you to look at the

rasmussen poll. jim you're good at being clear eyed about these things. warning about overconfidence. i don't think democrats need that reminder after 2016. but where are the warning signs for the biden campaign, where would you suggest pumping the brakes? >> i think john had it right. it's like candy at a store and you say we'd love to compete in texas but texas is a $70 million decision. you have to put $70 million in there in the next five weeks to go to win it, george is probably a 30, $40 million decision. so i think we have to tend to our knitten, which means stay in the midwest, get those three states, win florida. michael bloomberg's infusion is crucial. on election night we'll know florida early so that could end this thing as well. and then, because they have so much money i think you play in

these other places, you do put money on the ground in iowa, ohio, which aren't $70 million decisions but will make trump spend some money. i think that's what the biden campaign will do and they have a smart strategy to continue to put the money both on the ground and on tv. >> gene robinson, what's your take on the polls that you've seen? where do you see an area of concern for biden's campaign? >> well, as everybody has said, i don't think there's a danger of over confidence after what happened four years ago. and so i'm not exactly sure where i see the danger. i mean, it is -- you know, they have to sew up, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, sew up the states they crucially need to have. the bloomberg money in florida,

it is, i think, going to be crucial because you get florida and we have an early evening basically. we're not looking at days and weeks of not knowing who won. we know who won pretty early in the evening on election night. so i think the biden campaign looks out and sees a lot of battles that are being fought or potentially fought in trump territory. in red state territory. and that's just a beautiful sight for them. so i think they need to keep doing what they're doing. i think on the other side, brace yourself for this, i think we're going to hear some crazy talk from the president over the next few weeks because i think he and his campaign will be increasingly frantic. and so, as insane as the rhetoric and the -- you know, just the nonsense is all the

time and has been especially recently, i think we should all prepare for it to get much worse because their hair should be on fire this morning. and i think it will be. >> so you look at the polls, i do have to say being in florida i think florida is extraordinarily close. i actually think cuban americans who are traditionally republican but had moved away a little bit after 2016 but not so much to elect republicans 2018. from what i've heard, cuban americans in south florida are even more energized to vote for donald trump. so i think florida is still going to be a tough race until the very end. if i had to look at any swing state right now that i thought those traditional swichk states that was going to break for donald trump, it would be

florida. i think this is considered his home state, there's a lot of intensity here. joe biden still hasn't connected with hispanic voters the way he needs to connect with his panic voters. if he did i wouldn't think this race would be as close as it is. but he has to close the sale with puerto ricans in central florida and other hispanics. he's not doing as well as he should. i'm glad jim messina you're here. i want you, in the words of montgomery burns, soothe my j e jan jangled nerves. when i ran campaigns i was insane type a personality, i trusted nobody or anything, i

knocked on 10,000 doors myself, we were at people's doors up until the morning of election day. we were -- it was just an aggressive get out the vote operation because i didn't trust anything but sort of that reach out and touch approach planning a lot of yard signs. so when i hear from ron fornia that in michigan, detroit, the trump people are all over the place knocking on doors and the biden people are nowhere, they're just calling, and i hear the same thing in the state of florida and i've seen it in my neighborhood, literature at every door across communities across florida, across other swing stat states but the biden people aren't coming out because of the pandemic. i'm wondering, does that cause

you concern? should the biden team be concerned that the trump operation is so much more aggressive in 2020 getting out the vote? >> i think the question is how you want to get out the vote in 2020. we're having to reinvent this whole wheel in the middle of this. i was taught by my mentors to run like you're ten points behind the whole way. i think that's the only way to run a company. but the biden campaign is trying to reinventing campaigning, they have 2,500 digital organizers who are doing the things not just on the phone but on facebook, digital, building groups, touching people, there's interesting new research that says now a touch on social media, online is as effective as a door knock. i don't know who's answering the doors in this pandemic time. if one knocked on the door and wanted to hand me literature, i

would ask them to put it in the bin. i think there are new ways to do this. you don't care about whether it's on the door or digital. what you care about is meaningful context you can measure and persuade and that's what the biden campaign is banking on it. it's a new strategy, one that's not been done before. and their campaign manager is a gold standard in the democratic party so if she thinks they can do it, i believe her. >> i had democratic strategists in north carolina and arizona saying to me they wish there was more presence on the ground by the biden campaign and they're feeling swamped you here echos in wisconsin and michigan also saying there's not a presence here. i get the point you don't want to answer the doors, but there is also a plea from some strategists saying we need more viz visibility to the biden

campaign. i'm thinking here in florida and the puerto ricans, joe was mentioning them and joe biden is behind in the polls with hispanic voters compared to hillary clinton in 2016. i'm wondering as we get into the supreme court fight there's focus on health care, preexisting conditions, the affordable care act. is that a way that joe biden can perhaps improve his standing michael bloombe amongst some of those puerto rican voters in florida in particular but democratic voters generally is this a way to change the topic of conversation to something that helps democrats? >> it's going to be a tricky balancing act between fighting joe biden -- fighting for protection of preexisting conditions and upholding the aca, versus holding this into a fever pitch abortion war. i think in florida you can see

that play two different ways because hispanic voters are not monolithic and the conservativism of hispanic voters has led some republican voters in the past, namely george w. bush, to have great success there. i think it's really going to come down to how finally the message is honed. and you just wonder how much this can actually help republicans in their battleground states, like maine, like even arizona, these states, colorado, purple. when you've got abortion versus aca. >> john heileman, we've got the first debate next week on tuesday, i think it is. and i want to ask you how important these debates are to

the outcome of the election. we've already seen polls where 70% of americans say, i've made up my mind. i don't care what happens. the debates aren't going to have any difference. i don't know that's a new phenomenon. if i have to list the three worst debate performances that i've seen in my adult life -- well, not -- is college you're adult? not really. 1984, ronald reagan's first debate against walter mondale. reagan didn't know where he was. he started rambling about going up highway 1. it's a pretty highway i know but he couldn't finish the thought. it was terrible, reagan won 49 states. 2012, barack obama, turned in a miserable debate performance in cleveland, i think it was, against mitt romney. it didn't matter. >> denver.

>> it was -- it was denver. okay. it was a blowout. you can even go to george bush in 2004, you go, yeah, i'll take the next question, the extra time. all he'd say is, it's hard. it's hard. he won the election. so i mean, only debate i can think of in my entire life that's made a difference was the 1980 debate, ronald reagan against jimmy carter, and man, that debate made a big difference. but boy, that's the exception, isn't it? not the rule. >> yeah. so you just covered a bunch of ground joe and i think it's relevant. the three debates you mentioned at the start, the reagan '84, the barack obama 2012, i'm sorry jim messina is having ptsd from the 2012 i can feel it through the air and the kerry/bush

debate in 2004. what's the commonality between those three things? the commonality is the first debate for an incumbent president often does not go well for that president. they have been cosetted and kissed up to for three, almost four years they've not had a debate, real political combat on stage for all this time. they have yes, men. they have not had someone in their grill in the way they get challenged in the first debate. they haven't had it since the last time they were on a debate stage which was four years ago, so they often have issues. donald trump in many particular, i just -- you know, history tells us that donald trump is headed for some trouble. that's the first thing. the reagan debate and carter is fascinating. we're working on a thing for recount to go back and look at that in a little more detail

because it is the one that people cite as maybe being what we're about to see. people forget how close the race between carter and reagan was for all of 1980. deep into the summer, into early fall, it was a toss up. >> it was a deadlock. >> the country had decided -- it was a deadlock. and the country, high inflation, high employment, the iran hostage crisis, the wrong track numbers off the charts. carter's approval rating was like 33%. the country decided to fire carter but had not yet settled on the notion they were comfortable with reagan because carter spent the whole year portraying him as a warmonger and a nut and a cowboy and an extremism. so all the pressure was on both sides but it was really on reagan to assure the country he was a reasonable alternative. that debate, only one debate in

1980 and it was seven days out from election day. wacko to have one debate and have it a week before election day. but reagan goes out and gives a calm, steady, reassuring, funny, congenial performance and what happens in the last seven days? the whole race tips and reagan wins an overwhelming 400 plus electoral vote landslide i'm not predicting that will happen for biden, the country is too polarized, but i think the dynamic could be the same where the country has decided to fire donald trump, but biden has not yet closed the sale. and if he performs well on tuesday, he will take a big step. not a guarantee but a big step potentially to putting himself in the white house in 2021. >> jim messina, i'll let you go back to the 2012 debate or ignore the comment from john heileman. but you're struck by the idea that donald trump rarely has been confronted face-to-face

with his failures. confronted face-to-face with his lies. when he travels in the bubble he goes to a rally, to cheering crowds. we saw some of it yesterday when he paid his respects to ruth bader ginsburg, standing on the steps of the supreme court and was booed and was met with chants from the crowds there. but you see what happens when he is confronted whether it's chris wallace or jonathan swan in an interview with data and facts he doesn't do well. what are you expecting to see on the stage and how important is tuesday night to joe biden? >> i think it is very important. i think that heileman has it right. the country has decided to fire donald trump. you don't trail in states like you traditionally won like ohio and iowa. the country decided they don't want donald trump anymore now they want to make sure that joe biden is the leader he wants, he's cogent, knows what he's doing. i think tuesday night has

outsize importance. back to my ptsd in 2012 we lost the debate worse than anyone had lost 89 to 11. i remember we ze're getting the news from our pollster we had to go to the spin room and david axelrod looked at me and said do you know the worst part about being the campaign adviser? i said, what. he said you first and he pushed me in. i said we won that debate and everyone started laughing at me. that was one of the worst nights. my mom called later that evening and said, how screwed are we, baby? i'm like, even my mom thinks we're in trouble. but we had a better second debate. we got our lead back and won handily. so it wasn't determinative. but john's right i do have ptsd. >> axelrod using you as a human

shield. thank you both so much. gene robinson thank you as well. we'll read your new column in "the washington post." still ahead on "morning joe." the 2016 democratic vice president nominee senator tim kaine of virginia joins the conversation on that and the battle over the supreme court. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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hillary clinton just a week ago or so told joe biden do not accept the results of the election under any circumstances. but you don't ask her that question. you only ask me the question. yeah, go ahead. >> mr. leader, what do you plan to do if president trump refuses to engage in a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. >> president trump will peacefully come to be sworn in again. it'll be a smooth transition. regardless of the outcome. i'm concerned of what i'm

hearing on the other side of the aisle. i'm concerned that the democrat nominee -- you asked me a question if i may i'll answer the question. the democrat nominee hillary clinton -- >> she's not the democratic nominee. >> the last time the democrat nominee from the last election went on television advising the current nominee -- you have the former nominee tell him never concede. >> what hillary clinton actually said in an interview for the recount is that joe biden should not concede on the night of the election because there are so many mail-in ballots still to be counted. joining us now democratic senator tim kaine of virginia. good to see you this morning. >> thank you. >> i'm curious your reaction given you were the running mate of hillary clinton to those comments but more broadly to the point what president trump is saying around the election, that he may not concede, go peacefully, he can't say whether

there will be a peaceful transfer of power. some of your colleagues in the senate came out quickly and condemned that saying we are going to have a peaceful transfer. what do you make of that response from kevin mccarthy, it seemed to be a republican talking point from yesterday, the nominee from four years ago said something in an interview we're going to use as more important than what the president said today. >> i think republicans are very worried about what president trump said. i lived in a military dictatorship in honduras in the 1980s. i expect him to challenge the results when he loses. i just hope our institutions are strong enough to usher him out of office. what hillary said was correct, which was on the night of the election -- use virginia as an example.

if you mail a ballot they'll count it up to three days after. so you need to wait until the ballots come in and are roucoun before you see where the election is. that's reasonable, completely different than what donald trump is threatening to do. >> there's well founded consternation not just among democrats but among americans, how this will play out, whether donald trump will accept the result of the election. what is your recourse as a senator and what can americans expect to happen in the days and weeks after election day? >> willie, the first thing is the most important. make it as clear as we can on november 3rd and the days immediately after by voting in record numbers. we're seeing it in virginia. we started early vote last friday. there are already twice as many early votes plus absentee ballots out than cast in the entire cycle of 2016. i think the key to

delegitimizing trump's efforts to hold onto power and muddy the waters is massive turnout. in the aftermath we have to wait and see how the ballots get counted in the couple of days after the election. it probably will be close in a couple states, certainly in a couple of senate races the senate majority is up for grabs. so i think leaders have to portray a sense of calm, our registrars are counting the ballots we'll have an answer in a few days. we know how the election went in most places there are a few states, house districts we don't, we'll have the answer soon. the president will be trying to whip up division, it's up to the adults in in the room to convey the knowledge we'll have an answer soon. >> you said yesterday i don't care if it's judge judy or aaron judge, i'm not voting for anybody that m comes out of an

unconstitutional process. what do you view about this as unconstitutional? what's illegitimate about this process? >> willie, when president obama had a vacancy in the last year of his presidency, the republicans wouldn't even meet with the candidate, hold a hear organize a vote and they announced, this is the new rule if there's a vacancy in the last year of a presidency we'll wait and they said let the american people decide. over and over again, lindsey graham said, hold these words against me if there's a republican elected in 2016 and in the last year of his or her term there's a vacancy, hold it against me. we won't move to fill the vacancy let the american people decide. now the republicans decided to reverse it. why are they rushing? this is really important. why are they rushing? ? i think they're rushing because they view is this as their last

chance to kill the affordable care act. they tried administratively, on the courts, on the floor of the house and senate. they failed. now they have a case argued one week after election day. by supreme court tradition, if a justice isn't in the seat on argument day they can't participate in the decision. they have eight justices, four of whom have supported the affordable care act, four of whom voted to majover turn it o been critical of it. they want somebody in that seat on november 10th to take coverage away from people with preexisting conditions. i'm not going to let them break their promise, bum rush a nominee to take health insurance away from millions of people. >> just based on what we heard from republicans, we're open, including mitt romney, we're going to have a vote. do you see any way from your side to stop whoever president trump no, ma'am minates tomorro?

>> i think if the senate majority is determined to break their promise and move forward, they can probably figure out a way to do so. what i want to convey in the clearest possible terms, there's no mischief they can do in the senate or in the supreme court between now and inauguration day that democrats can't fix if we win the senate and win the white house. we can fix anything bad that they do in the next couple of months if we can win the senate, win the white house. that means voting this year is fundamentally a vote to protect your own health. it has life and death consequences. >> elise jordan has a question for you. >> hey, elise. >> senator, how are you? >> good. >> you're on the foreign relations committee. previously if a leader in a foreign country had refused to c condemn the concept of not transferring power peacefully, you would have had everyone on the committee just raising hell.

what are you hearing -- what are you hearing behind closed doors from republicans? are you hearing more concern about donald trump's comments this week than publicly -- public condemnations have been pretty tepid overall. >> they have. this week in the foreign relations committee we had a hearing to vote on the president's head of human rights in in the state department i said i feel sorry for you you're supposed to support democracy and we have a president saying he won't support the election. and you are supposed to support the press and you have president trump laughing at ali velshi. the republicans, we've cast in our lot with this guy, he's

taken over the gop, we're going to hold onto the hem of his coat and hopefully he'll take us to victory. they're weary of it but they're past the point of condemning it. the president has been attacking cory booker, a member of our committee, saying he's going to destroy s destroy suburbia, i asked this week will one fellow committee member stand up and say the president is using racist tropes? will one? and the answer is no, not one. >> pathetic. katty kay? >> hi. >> hi. you're the only person on the planet who has debated against mike pence in a vice presidential nominee situation. so let's get your thoughts on that. what are the stakes this time around? are they different from back in 2016 when you debated? what do you see as the

challenges and the opportunities for kamala harris? >> first, to be humble, we all went through the history of vice presidential debates before that debate and realized not one ever made any difference. and there was only one -- >> that's why i asked if it was different this time around. >> if the vice presidential nominee allows unchecked shots against the presidential nominee and doesn't respond, that's the weakness. so what you have to do in a vice presidential debate is you're like a goalie you have to keep pucks out of the net. you can't have an attack on hillary clinton or a joe biden you don't respond to. here's the difference in this debate. remember in 2016, there wasn't an incumbent. it was two candidates, hillary and donald trump, saying this is what i would do. this is a debate about an incumbent president and evidence. kamala harris is a prosecutor. i suspect she's going to argue

the evidence, 200,000 plus dead, millions lost their jobs, social unrest in the streets, deficits that are sky high. a prosecutor will have evidence to argue in this debate, that's different than 2016 when it was promises about what we'll do rather than what has the record been of the first administration? >> we get the first debate tuesday, and then eight days later is the vice presidential debate. coming up, facebook is out of control. if it were a country it would be north korea. that is the take from our next guest. the reporter who in 2018 broke the story of how a data analytics firm harvested millions of profiles to influence the election. now she is working to further expose the tech giant for its role in undermining democracy. "morning joe" is back in a moment. "morning joe" is back in a moment really? you're right, i s-should get a delicious footlong from subway. that would be better.

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hey, thank you so much for coming back with us. in 2018, journalist for the guardian and observer carol broke the cambridge analytic facebook story where a whistle-blower described how the firm linked to former trump adviser steve bannon targeted american voters during the 2016 election. she has been working nonstop to expose facebook for its role in breaking democracy. >> it's 100 years ago the biggest danger in the south was gas, silent and deadly and invisible. it's why they sent the canaries down first to check the air. in this massive global online experiment we are all living through, we in britain are the cana canary. we are what happens to a western democracy when 100 years of

electoral laws are disrupted by technology. our democracy is broken. our laws don't work anymore. it's not me saying this. it's our parliament published a report saying this. this technology you invented has been amazing. now it's a crime scene. and you have the evidence. and it is not enough to say that you will do better in the future. because to have any hope of stopping this from happening again, we have to know the truth. and maybe you think, well, it was just a few ads. and people are smarter than that, right? to which i would say, good luck with that. because what the brexit vote demonstrates is that liberal democracy is broken. and you broke it.

this is not democracy. spreading lies in darkness paid for with illegal cash from god knows where. it's subversion. and you are accessories to it. >> carol continues her investigations into the social media giant in a recent piece titled "facebook is out of control. if it were a country, it would be north korea". in that piece she argued there's no power on this earth capable of holding facebook to account. she's organized a group of experts to analyze facebook's content decisions, policies and other platform issues in the run up to the presidential election called the real facebook oversight board. carol joins us now. thank you for being with us. your ted talk was extraordinary. we followed everything you've been doing closely. i've got to say, first of all,

it's -- i was explaining a couple days ago that i've got friends in my hometown that i love dearly and they love me dearly. do. if i ask them for a kidney for a transplant, they'd say sure. they would give to me. and yet when i talk to them about the 2020 election, they're on another planet. not whether they're donald trump or joe biden, but just on the basic facts. and i really didn't understand that until i saw your ted talk. you have the same experience when you went back to your hometown and everybody was talking about how horrible the eu was. >> well, i mean i think you kind of put your nail on the head, joe, which is that we are now living in different realities, in different universes, and we

can see very directly how facebook has put us into these bubbles. and we know that -- we know that there is continuous stream of lies and misinformation that is being distributed now at this critical time in american democracy while people have already started voting. and i think it's incredibly alarming that people don't have access to basic facts anymore. you know, i think we can all see the ways that the problematic things that that is going to mean in terms of the upcoming election. >> yeah. and you -- it was funny, in your ted talk you went back and you would interview people on the street. they would say the eu has done nothing for me. right behind them was this massive eu complex. i think it was a community

center. and then transportation and all these other things. but they couldn't see the world around them because they were seeing disinformation, things that the people putting it out knew they were lies because they were looking at their screens and that had become their reality and not these mammoth buildings and programs and economic development programs that had been sent to reinvigorate your old hometown. >> that's right. i think the difference is in 2016 when we really weren't aware of what was going on on the platforms. you know, we had come from this world where elections were fought in public, where it was articles, it was politicians talking on television. we all had access to the same information and we didn't realize actually that people were in completely different realities on facebook. and the most alarming thing when

i started looking into it was the fact that all this content had just completely disappeared. there was no archive at all. what people were seeing was being directed at them personally and then it was vanishing. and so what's happened since then is we now know so much more about what happened in 2016. we know that america was actually attacked by a foreign power, which used facebook to directly subvert the election. we now have these facts. but here we are four years on and we're facing exactly the same problems again. and we know that facebook has this classic methodology, break things and then apologize afterwards. and what i think the experts who are coming onboard with the real facebook oversight board are so concerned about is that it's america's democracy which is going to be broken by facebook next. and that's why -- yeah, go

ahead. >> i'm so sorry. and willie, it's so interesting, carole talks about the crime scene and talks about how facebook has the evidence and talks about how we didn't know as much about what was going on. facebook knew what was going on and there was that remarkable moment when somebody actually told board members what had been going on, how much russia had tried to influence not only american democracy but had completely taken over segments of facebook's advertising. and sheryl sandberg yelled at this person for daring to tell the board the truth. >> right. where you might hope sheryl sandberg in that moment might say, my god, what can we do about this. that's my question to you, carole. this week facebook said it shut down 155 accounts that were posting from china about the

presidential election. they made a big story of that. but what is their view of themselves and of their responsibility at facebook? is it just this game of whack-a-mole where they see something and try to get it where they can? and isn't just the volume too large to police that much content and that much bad information? how do they view themselves? are they a platform, are they a publisher, and why haven't they been more aggressive. >> the thing about facebook, the critical thing to remember is that it is a private company and it is absolutely controlled by one man only. and no private company should have this amount of power and influence in any election. and it now has this power and influence in every single election that happens across the world. and the critical thing about it is there is no mechanism for accountability. there is literally, we have discovered, nobody, no

legislator, no regulatory body, no law enforcement agency on earth that is capable of holding facebook to account. and i think, you know, for me one of the critical moments that with the cambridge analytica and facebook story, in some respects there was this amazing result which was that the ftc fined facebook $5 billion. it was its biggest fine ever, it's a landmark. and you know what happened on the day that it announced that fine? facebook share price actually went up because what's $5 billion to a company like that. it's just small change. and so that, i think, was this really frightening moment when, you know, i think we really had to face up to the fact that this is a platform which is out of control, that is answerable to

nobody, and that has this enormous and unchecked power. and i think that should be a cause of concern for all americans of any political stripe. this is not a partisan mission, it's a democracy. >> carole, it was directed by people and now it's algorithms and we may have just handed over this monster that we created to robots anyway. if you had ultimate power and could be the arbiter of what happened to facebook, what would you do? >> no company should be this big with this much power, with three different monopolies it's combined together, facebook, instagram, whatsapp. every single one of them being used to spread lies and misinformation. the idea that one company should have all of those three different companies and that it

would operate all across the world with no system, nothing at all able to enforce any kind of checks and balances on it, i mean this is thed dystopia. and the fact that we can see it all around us, we have to really understand how these platforms have this type of communication, have this kind of power, has really led us into the situation which i think, you know, we should all be very, very alarmed about. and i think the thing which is most concerning to the people, the experts who have come together on this board and civil rights leaders like rashad robinson and derrick johnson and leading academics, the reason why they are coming together is because we know every single day

there is another facebook story with more disinformation about foreign actors, about lies and misinformation. and you know, we can see this happening in realtime and there's nothing we can do about it. and so that's -- sorry. >> no, it's been important conversation and i know we'll be hearing much more from you probably over the next few weeks. journalist with "the guardian" and observer, carole cadwalladr. her group is called the real facebook oversight board with an advocacy group called the citizens trying to hold big tech accountable. coming up next on "morning joe" we'll run through a slew of knew poling showing the numbers tightening. ing showing the numbe tightening it's official: national coffee day is now national dunkin' day! celebrate with a free medium hot or iced coffee with any purchase on september 29th.

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now, we do know who he admires. he admires putin, he admires kim jong-un, he admires erdogan in turkey. he admires people who are perpetuating their role in government. but i remind him, you are not in nou north korea, you are not in turkey, you are not in russia, mr. president, and by the way, you are not in saudi arabia. you are in the united states of america. it is a democracy. >> new battleground state polls now 39 days until the election. let's start in pennsylvania where the latest franklin and

marshall college poll finds joe biden and president trump statistically tied within that poll's nearly eight-point margin of error. biden at 48%, trump at 42%. the fox news poll giving biden a 7-point lead in pennsylvania, 51-44. over in ohio, a statistical tie in the latest quinnipiac poll, biden at 48%, trump at 47%. the fox news poll out of ohio has joe biden with a five-point lead, 50-45. in iowa, "the new york times"/siena college poll, a statistical tie there with biden at 45%, president trump at 42%. and in georgia, "the new york times"/siena college poll shows biden and trump tied at 45%. the second poll this week that shows that state tied. in nevada, biden is ahead by 11 points, 52-41. and in texas, the latest "the new york times"/siena college poll finds president trump and joe biden in a statistical tie,

donald trump leading 46-43 within the margin of error there. the latest quinnipiac poll has president trump up in texas by five points, 50-45. all right, joe, take your crack at all of those. where do you want to start? >> well, i think we obviously -- we've seen over the past couple weeks since kenosha, we've seen what's happened in missouri. joe biden has seemed to pull ahead somewhat comfortably in some polls, in wisconsin, seven, eight points after what happened in kenosha. so the states obviously, willie, that everybody has been talking about for four years, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and really ohio wasn't a part of this. ohio and iowa comfortably fell in donald trump's campaign, but all five of those states across the upper midwest have obviously been part of the heartland battle. but you look at these polls,

let's start in pennsylvania. biden up 48-42 in one poll, six points. the fox news poll biden up seven points there. then you go to ohio. this is a real surprise. ohio and iowa firmly for donald trump, and then you've got biden up, again, statistical tie like you said, biden up 48-47. the fox news poll biden up five. 50-45. obviously if ohio is close on election night, this is going to be a blowout and joe biden is going to likely win by a landslide if ohio is close. iowa 45-42. again, a state that -- you know, that trump people told me a year ago wasn't even going to be close. that's a three-point lead, 45-42. and then you go beyond that, michael steele, look at georgia.

georgia tied 45-45. nevada, which the trump people went to because they're desperate to pick up another state because they're losing states they never thought they would lose. he goes to nevada and his numbers just absolutely plummet. he's losing there by 11 points, 52-41. who knows, maybe going out there acting crazy, putting people's lives at risk, i don't know. maybe that's not a 90-10 issue break in your way, maybe that actually hurts you. and then in texas, we've got a couple of polls, michael steele, in texas like all the other polls we've seen this year that are basically a dead heat. donald trump up 46-43 in the q poll but, michael, that's a statistical tie. so as you're looking through these numbers and you look for good news for donald trump, man,

if i were running his campaign, i wouldn't know where to go because iowa is slipping out of sight, georgia is still tied, texas is still tied, nevada -- you're not going to pick up nevada. stop pretending you're going to pick up nevada. it's not going to happen. and then ohio. i think obviously pennsylvania it looks like he's starting -- biden is starting to make some space in pennsylvania. but man, i think of all the numbers that stand out to me, it's that fox news poll number in ohio that has joe biden up five points in ohio. again, it's almost like the craziness of the past week hasn't helped him. >> so a couple of things there, joe. your analysis on ohio in particular is spot on in terms of where this campaign not only is but where it's trending and has been trending for quite some time. what i think contributes to some of the manic behavior of trump

at this point, specifically his notion that all of a sudden now even more -- with more emphasis this election is going to be rigged. the internal numbers of the campaign are not just reflecting what you're seeing on these sort of broader big polls by fox and others, but is showing a trend that is troubling, troubling and problematic for the president, particularly when you look at the republican wall, iowa, georgia and texas. and when you look at those states, texas should be a blow away for trump. this shouldn't even be a conversation. it shouldn't even be a conversation. same in iowa and georgia for that matter. but what's happened is, as reflected in ohio, is that the voters are settling and have settled for some time away from trump, and trump has not done anything to broaden that base vote that he needs to hold these

states in line. so the problem becomes even -- and ohio's reflective of this is even greater when you get in places like missouri and michigan and wisconsin and pennsylvania and nevada where they were planning to create a new beach head. so this is -- the polling out today, and again a snapshot, we get it. but these are state polls. this is not a national snapshot, these are state polls and so this gives you a better sense, joe, of where the campaign is beginning to settle. and the wall that donald trump needed to breach is not only getting tougher to do so, it's getting higher and more difficult at every turn. >> so, jim, you come from packer country. let's talk about the midwest for a second here. after ruth bader ginsburg died, dave wasserman pulled out some

polls which didn't surprise me at all but are pretty stark. i looked at them originally as being real concerns for candidates like joni ernst, but obviously they apply as well to donald trump. this is what dave wasserman wrote after the passing of ruth bader ginsburg. although trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters with mostly pro choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in a lot of battleground states. in iowa, 25% of donald trump supporters in iowa identified themselves as pro choice. this iowa poll taken mainly after ruth bader ginsburg's death shows donald trump down now three points in iowa. florida, 24%. pennsylvania, 24% pro choice voters who voted for donald trump. and of course we see what's happening in pennsylvania.

but let's go down to ohio. in this ohio poll by fox news that was taken days after ruth bader ginsburg's death, donald trump now down five points in ohio. that's a state where 20% of voters that voted for donald trump in 2016 considered themselves pro choice voters. and the prospect, the very real prospect now that donald trump is going to ensure that roe v. wade is overturned. i've seen it. voters won't make that the top issue for the most part on the democratic side, some do, but if you're really at that point now where donald trump is going to be responsible for the overturning of an almost 50-year pro-choice precedent, that's going to have an impact with voters, i think, and certainly you look at these ohio polls where biden is moving ahead.

it seems to be the case. >> yeah, there's a couple of ways to look at this. one, when you talk to the campaign strategists on both sides, both would say there's still a chance that either candidate could win but there's only one that could win in a blowout and that's definitely biden. you've got through arizona, georgia, texas, ohio, pennsylvania, all these states that could easily go for biden if you're looking at the numbers. and i think that's what obviously democrats are rooting for. another way to look at it, though, go down each one of those polls that you showed, almost all of them are within the margin of error. despite all of the things that donald trump has done and all the things that he has said and the number you have on your screen, 204,000 people dead because of the coronavirus, and he's still within the margin of error in all of these states. it will ultimately become a turnout battle. and i think the worst possible outcome for the country in some ways is a razor-thin margin on election day. we cannot emphasize enough the

danger of what donald trump said the last couple of days about saying, listen, i might not accept the results of this election and basically turn over the federal government to joe biden if i lose and i think this stuff is in dispute, because a lot of those states that you just talked about, pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, all of them are having disputes, either legislatively or legally about how are you going to count votes, how is your vote going to be counted and validated. and the worst thing, when you have all this misinformation and all of this sort of partisanship flowing through the system would be people not trusting the outcome of the vote. so all those things being within the margin of error, it does give donald trump a chance. the fact that he's still sitting at 42%, 43%, if he's right, what he would say is, listen, what you're missing in those polls is 3% to 4% people that will hang up the phone, they'll never tell you what they think or tell their neighbors what they think but they're the ones that will

turn out and vote for me because they like the economic side of my policies and they tolerate my behavior because they like the economic consequences of it. so i think these polls are interesting. they are a snapshot as michael said, but i think the bigger story and i'm sure the one you guys are going to hit on throughout this program are his comments about i might not trust the results of this election. even though republican senators are saying we will, we will, this has never happened before in the history of our country. i can't think of a single time in reading history where a sitting president has routinely said you, the public, might not be able to trust the outcome of the vote. that's all democracy has. that's what differentiates us from everyone else. it's what made us great from beginning to end. if you say no longer we can't trust it and you know that he has this ability to get people to think what he thinks, at least 40% of the country moves with him when he believes something, so you can really -- i don't think it's hyperbolic for us to start planning what

happens if 40% of the country doesn't believe the results. still ahead, more of the down ballot impact of what we're seeing from the president. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. ing "mornin" we'll be right back. ctices... ...and new adventures. you hope the more you give the less they'll miss. but even if your teen was vaccinated against meningitis in the past... they may be missing vaccination for meningitis b. let's help protect them together. because missing menb vaccination could mean missing out on a whole lot more. ask your doctor if your teen is missing meningitis b vaccination. ask your doctor if your teen locating your parked car with the touch of a button

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♪ >> you know, kasie hunt, i was talking about ohio being a big surprise that joe biden is ahead by five points in ohio, and again, that's certainly just a snapshot of the electorate, just one moment in time. but that one moment in time happens to be immediately after the death of ruth bader ginsburg, and donald trump and mitch mcconnell saying they were going to shove through another federalist society nominee, which again, if you look at these swing states and look at the numbers, doesn't seem to work out very well for them in the end, especially because the areas that i know you've been reporting on this all year, the

areas where donald trump and republicans have the biggest problem are the loss of suburban voters, women more educated voters. but here's another state that we should be, if you're on the trump campaign, they should have the alarms flashing, and that's iowa. can we put up those iowa numbers, alex, that show donald trump losing 45% to 42%. this is within the margin of error in iowa. 45% to 42%. those are likely voters. ruth bader ginsburg died on the 18th, so the night of the 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd, five days they talked to iowa voters. you take this poll in tandem with anne seltzer's poll earlier this week that showed joni ernst losing by three points, and here you have a state that was supposed to be locked down, that

when i asked a year ago, basically the people running trump's campaign, how about iowa? they started laughing and said it's going to be a blowout, we won't have to even go to iowa. we won it by nine points last time. we'll win it by double digits this time. they're deadlocked in iowa. you talk about a canary in a coal mine. again, i know all of these things are -- i know all of these things are just snapshots of what's happening today and yes, maybe people are afraid to say that they're voting for donald trump, and i understand why you would be ashamed to say you were voting for donald trump. i give you like 300 reasons why you shouldn't admit it publicly. i understand that. i'd be ashamed too if i were you voting for donald trump. but even if that's the case, kasie, they're still underperforming by about nine points in iowa. spread that out across the map, it's just not good news any way you cut it. >> it's really not.

and the iowa numbers honestly have been the ones that i have been watching the most carefully, partly because, you know, it's hard to do these state polls. the numbers sometimes are all over the place. ohio, i think, is a good example. we talked about some arizona polling yesterday. iowa is the center of the political universe. you have people like anne seltzer who gives the gold standard of polling typically, who are working there and understanding what's going on. i also spent a lot of time thinking about how this intersects with the senate map and with those two things nationalized, those two things go together. the numbers out of iowa are stunning to me. the fact we're talking about whether joni ernst can win or lose. as you point out, the trump campaign can't bank on iowa. if they can't bank on iowa, their problem across the midwest is way worse than any of us ever thought it was likely to be at this stage. and that's in large part because

iowa has the proportion of the population that are made up of what we call in polling parlance noncollege white voters. those who have been the ones that have tended to stick with donald trump the most. that number is higher in iowa and these numbers reflect that those people are not necessarily sticking with him. if this is the situation in iowa, what does that mean about what's going on in pennsylvania, in potentially ohio, in wisconsin, which we thought was going to be the center of the universe, could still be, but seems to be breaking for joe biden at this stage in the game. and i do think there are very real questions. jim vandehei touched on this. we know this could be an incredibly close election and we could be fighting this out for weeks. there are also some signs that there is the possibility, and when i have conversations on the hill, this has been raised with me, that this could be a sweep across the map. you could be looking at all of these republican senators falling down, whether it's

montana, iowa, obviously north carolina is going to be the center of it, maine, susan collins, that instead of looking at individual races on the night, we're going to be looking at a sweep and potential blowout across the map. that of course is the worst-case scenario for somebody like a mitch mcconnell. but if you read into what they're saying, the messaging that they have started to turn to, trying to tell voters you don't want one party rule, you should be concerned about democrats being in charge of everything. that tells me they're concerned about voters being in charge of everything and ultimately that's about president trump's weakness in these unexpected places. coming up, the president signs an executive order that he claims will ensure health care coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. so why is his administration fighting a law that already does exactly that? "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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with any purchase want conservative judges on i'the court.vative, this may make you feel better, but i really don't care. if an opening comes in the last year of president trump's term and the primary process has started we'll wait to the next election. i want you to use my words against me. you're on the record. yeah, hold the tape. lindsey must go and the lincoln project are responsible for the content of this ad. to deliver your packages. and the peace of mind of knowing that important things like your prescriptions, and ballots, are on their way. every day, all across america, we'll keep delivering for you. every day, all across america, i will send out an army to find you

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welcome back to "morning joe." in a moment we're going to be asking and hopefully answering the question where is true conservatism in donald trump's america. but first, nbc news senior correspondent, tom brokaw, gives us his take on what's at stake this november.

>> the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg is at one sad and from a political point of view in this explosive year, it is also consequential. how it will all play out in the end, it's too early to say. but it's one more example of what i call the ufo, the unforeseen will occur. we're fast approaching one of the most consequential presidential elections in american history. one of the greatest challenges in the long history of this country. we're still in the grips of one of the deadliest pandemics in a long life of america, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. our medical system is under siege emotionally, financially, physically. states are now measured by deaths, not by tourist attractions or their economies, by football teams or universities. we're bracketed by cultural and

racial wars. streets have become war zones. and the american west coast is a vast inferno. it's destructive and dangerous and it's not over. here in montana, we inhale the smoke from oregon. neither vice president biden nor president trump can make this go away with one election alone. they bring different attitudes to the challenge. race and culture are the two defining elements. president trump emphasizes division and confrontation. vice president biden heads the party of cultural and economic diversity. but this election goes beyond two candidates and their philosophies. it is up to the people now and in the future to find common ground and common will to heal the wounds, to work harder at tolerance and forgiveness and

common ground to find leaders not just in the white house but in the commonwealth of america from sea to shining sea. it will not happen with one election. but the time to begin is now. >> commentary from nbc's tom brokaw. we're back in a moment with a look at conservatism in america. who is usaa made for? it's made for this guy a veteran who honorably served and it's made for her she's serving now we made it for all branches and all ranks

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we have two daughters. i want to do everything i can to protect the environment to make sure they see the same beauty i've seen in nature. my goal is to lead projects that affect the world. i know that to be great requires hard work. more dangerous and corrupt president than trump. he's harming our basic values, giving rise to hate, and he's selling out america to big corporations. i'm working to protect immigrants, women, communities of color, and lgbtq people. and i'm making corporations like pg&e and insurance companies play by our rules. we need experienced leadership to wipe away trump's stain on america for good.

we're signing a health care plan within two weeks, a full and complete health care plan that the supreme court decision on daca gave me the right to do. we're going to be introducing a tremendous health care plan sometime prior -- hopefully by the end of the month. it's just about completed now. >> you told chris wallace this summer in three weeks. >> i have it all ready. >> but you've been trying to strike down pre-existing

conditions. >> it's a much better plan for you and it's a much better plan. >> president trump over the past few months repeatedly promising a new health care plan. yesterday president trump announced two new executive orders on health care. critics argue his actions are little more than political moves. one order aims to prevent surprise billing, but it requires congress to pass legislation. the other order protects pre-existing conditions, but that's something that's already covered under the affordable care act, which his administration is in court fighting to overturn. so, joe, i guess that was the rollout of the big health care plan that they have been advertising out of the white house. >> yeah. >> a couple of more pieces of news from around the dial just this morning. lindsey graham is again this morning on fox news emotionally pleading for money in his race, feeling the heat from jamie harrison, his competitor there in south carolina. and the white house chief of staff, mark meadows, is on another show trashing the director of the fbi for saying that there is no widespread

fraud in mail-in voting. >> wait, wait, wait. steve is actually saying that there is widespread fraud in mail-in voting? >> he said christopher wray that get his own house in order before he weighs in on mail-in voting which director wray was asked about in sworn testimony yesterday. >> is that chief of staff mark meadows, or the man that -- >> yes. >> mark meadows. mark, i'm a friend of his. but man, he -- when he went to the white house, he just -- another planet. another planet. looking forward to getting him back in january or february, seeing mark meadows again not living in an alternative reality. let's bring in right now senior editor at the national review,

jay norlinger, charlie sykes and republican strategist and senior advisor to the lincoln project, susan del percio. katty kay is still with us as well. jay, thank you so much for being with us. are you west coast this morning or are you back on the east coast? >> i am on the east coast. yeah, lots of sleep. >> okay, good. so no excuses for anything that you say because you're tired. so, jay, tell me, you've been obviously at the forefront of the conservative movement for quite a long time. we've all talked about our concerns about what's happened to conservatism over the past 20 years, skyrocketing deficits and debt, an unfocused foreign policy. what is -- this is just my assumption, not your assumption.

but what if, looking at these polls, i am to assume that joe biden is elected and becomes president on january 20th, what is the future of conservatism? where does conservatism go? all the reasons i ran for congress, balancing the budget, limited federal government, madisonian checks and balances, the upholding of nato, the pushing back against russia, those have ceased to be conservative planks in this modern republican party. >> sure. so what will unite republicans or conservatives may be a democratic presidency. people like to have something to be against, and so that distracts from what they may be for, because they're for all sorts of different things. but it's easy for republicans and conservatives at large to be

anti-biden, anti-democratic with a big d. i often think of what george will says when i ask the question what is a conservative? he said, first of all, he's anti-left. and that can be a powerful thing. just as on the left they're anti-right. >> but isn't it why we're spinning in circles? isn't that why over the past 20, 25 years we've become ill defined, all the things that we stood for before it seems have been brushed aside. you look, for instance, when ronald reagan came into office, you had the heritage foundation and people like william bennett and jack kemp who were actually proposing a conservative way forward. william f. buckley as you know, there were ideas and they weren't just about owning the libs. how do we move past this idea that we win if we do things that

own the libs even if that hurts the conservative cause? >> i think we do it individually,one by one, by example. we don't have central headquarters issuing directions. it's a matter of individual conscience. and i think the very term "conservative," the idea of conservatism is up for grabs. what is conservatism -- beg your pardon, what is a conservative? is he a populist? is he a reaganite? the term "liberal" shifted long ago and i think the term "conservative" is undergoing a shift. and it's distressing to some of us, but these things happen. so when people talk about conservatism and liberalism now, i used to be pretty secure in what these meant. i have to ascertain what they mean before the conversation can continue, because i'm not sure that we have a shared vocabulary.

>> yeah. you know, charlie, charlie sykes, jay really does hit on an important point that actually conservatives, traditional conservatives would understand. certainly not the people that run around calling themselves conservatives now, but two of my heroes, frederick hyick and russell kirk, both of them extraordinarily skeptical of these programs, central headquarters, a strong man telling the entire world. hyick was so distrustful of any systems that actually that became a system in and of itself, his critics would say. i mean russell kirk in the conservative mind, you read his 1986 introduction to that, so much of it has to do with the fact, hey, people, we don't have a program.

we're skeptical of ideology. that is what the left does and that's what leads to worldly hells. but here we are. it's in this case, in my opinion, it's not a program, it's one man. and whatever he says, that defines conservatism. >> yeah. by the way, i agree with a lot of what jay said. look, you need to make a distinction between conservative ideas and the insights of people like frederick hyick versus the conservative movement and what's happened under donald trump where it has become dumber, meaner, more tribal and more extreme. look, a lot of us thought that the conservative movement was defined by people like george will and charles krauthammer and william f. buckley and frederick hyick and today it's defined by donald trump and sean hannity and sepp gorka. so it's going to be very

difficult to figure out what is conservatism about as opposed to just being reactionary to what the democrats are going to do. i completely agree with jay that at least on the surface the republicans will look more united after this election because they will be against whatever the democrats do. this is what they do best. joe, you just ran through a series of things that conservatives used to believe reflexively. small government, limited government, character matters, fiscal responsibility, american greatness based on american leadership and exceptionalism and all of those things have been scrapped. and so what happens next? i would like to tell you that if donald trump leaves the white house, that conservatives will snap back to sanity, but i'm not sure. if the future of conservatism is what you hear on fox news or what you hear from people like tr ted cruz or josh hawley, we're going to be in for a very, very rocky ride on the right where conservatism becomes a sort of

prude populism, and internet memes as opposed to a coherent ideology that we once thought constituted the conservative movement. >> yeah. i won't mention his name, but one senator that you mentioned, you know, it seems like he's at a race to the bottom on his twitter feed with donald trump. >> yes. >> and it is the antithesis of how conservatives used to think about themselves and how conservatives used to think about their belief system. again, it's an individual belief system if you're a true conservative because we don't believe in programs, we don't believe in central headquarters and one strong man. but susan del percio, i'm so concerned about younger conservatives that are looking

and seeing -- again, i'm just speaking for myself, seeing donald trump and seeing some of these other people that charlie brought up and thinking that's what conservatism is. again, for me, it was john kasich on the floor of the house fighting against bill clinton's 1993 budget, fighting against an increase of taxes, working actually with the democrat, tim penny, saying, hey, listen, i know that "the new york times" and "the washington post" says we can never ballet budget, ban. let me show you how we can balance the budget sending more power and authority back to the states. kasich laid that out. everybody said he was crazy and then we got elected in 1994 and guess what, we balanced the budget with the thanks of john kasich, we balanced a budget four years in a row, the only time that's happened in a

hundred years. that party is gone. what replaces that? >> well, it was a party based on principles and core values and basically donald trump has just hijacked the name republican, the label of being conservative. he hasn't hijacked the principles because he has none. so when we look forward, especially to younger conservatives, i actually think there is hope. i think after donald trump is out of office and the likes of jay and charlie and i are out there talking and writing about what these principles really are about, much like william f. buckley did in the '60s that reagan was able to capitalize on, i think we can see that again because we want to see principles. we want to see ideas. i don't think conservatism is going to be about beating the left, i think it's about going to be having ideas that are different from the left and basically convincing people that

our ideas are better and they should vote for them, not just be against whatever the left may have to say. >> jay, it's so important also, i think, and i'd love to get your input on this, too often i think conservatives and democrats look at demographic changes and say, oh, republicans are doomed. when in fact you look at the hispanic population, it's not monolithic. there are a lot of conservative, pro life, pro government hispanics. certainly the cuban american community and other hispanic communities, george w. bush got 44% of the hispanic vote in 2004. there's no reason why demographic changes should doom conservatism, but i'm afraid too often that's the feeling that

too many republicans carry around with them. so i wonder, what do you think the future -- again, i know you said it's individual as far as individual beliefs. but how does conservatism, not the republican party, how does conservatism speak to an america that's ever changing and undergoing a demographic revolution? >> well, it's not like me to quote jimmy carter very often, but i do in one instance because he often quoted a teacher of his back in plains, georgia, i think, miss julia. i can't remember her last name. but carter would say that miss julia said we have to adapt to changing times with unchanging principles. and what i think you have to do is make an argument. wasn't it thatcher who said first you make the argument and then you win the election? and you have to remember that life is long and political life is long, and cyclical. speaking of britain, i remember when the labor party was doomed,

it was finished. thatcher had vanquished it. pretty soon i think they won three elections in a row. i remember when the democratic party -- we reaganites had finished the democratic party off and there was a line a lot of us used. let me see if i can remember it. the democratic party has been reduced to a rump on three legs, a hollywood, aggrieved minorities and public sector labor unions, a lot of us said that. and then the democrats won and won. so one of the things about getting older is you realize that these things come and go. i look forward to a brighter day in conservative politics. i don't necessarily mean winning, although winning is good. winning is better than losing. but what are you winning for? what are you winning to do? what are you winning to represent? and i think people should speak and write and vote their conscience. and if you lose, fine.

you may win tomorrow. but make the argument. give people a choice. someone said a choice, not an echo. put your kind of conservatism, whatever it is, or liberalism, on the menu and ask for takers. that's my general view. that's my general view. >> amen. that's a great view. i love that jimmy carter quote. thank you charlie, susan. let's do, they gain very soon. really appreciate it. katty kay, i have to say, all the kids that i've been talking to over the past two weeks, they're not talking about tiktok. they're not -- you know what they're talking about. they're talking about your new podcast, and willie and i are saying, we can't get our kids to shut up about it. can't get them to eat their dinner or do their homework. they're all talking about katty kay's new podcast. it launches today. tell us about it. >> i'm sorry for the

interruption for your kids. hanging on my every single word, of course. the conversation you have just had is the kind of conversation we want to be having. carlos watson, american journalist out of san francisco, me here in washington, lived here for a long time. there's so much going on in the country that we thought it was a good time to have an inside/outside conversation looking at these big issues in america. the first one we're looking at is -- has america been humbled by the coronavirus? when you have nurses wearing garbage bags as ppe, should we start asking whether this is the greatest country in the world? could america have learned from other countries in a way that it didn't? we're going to look at race. we're going to bring in a south african journalist who has lived in america for a couple of years to compare what's happened in south africa, where he's been. what's the road forward. how can relations get better? how do you bring people into the conversation? so it's a great time to be

having a deep, frank, honest conversation. and actually, i just thought we should be doing something on conservativism. what is the new conservativism that grapples with the issues in america. you have a huge amount of income inequality. you've got real problems in the country. you've got massive deficit. we've got globalization to contend with. automation to contend with. how could conservatism grapple with those issues today? it's fun. i love working with somebody else. carlos has great perspective coming from the west coast. so first episode out today. i'm sorry if your kids won't talk about anything else. that's a shame. >> i know. it is, willie. what are you doing to try to get their mind off of katty kay's podcast and back onto their homework? >> i find it's an exercise in futility. i say get off the fortnite. and he says, papa, papa, i'm not

on the fortnite. i'm refreshing the page to see when the new episode is up. >> papa, papa. >> we're helpless. >> katty, that sounds amazing. her podcast is going to be great. it's out today. i also want to shout out jon meacham's podcast. every episode is about a speech in history. the first one is dr. king's final speech in memphis. then they go to bobby kennedy's speech in indianapolis the night king was shot. president obama's sermon in charleston, reagan's farewell address. in each episode, it just takes apart one of those speeches. it's really incredible. >> it's so incredible. it's such an incredible podcast. meacham. what a found listening to his podcast, he's really smart. >> and he's got the voice for a podcast, you have to say. that's called, it was said. really good. very excited about this guest. joining us now, actor, author,

john lithgow. he's got two tonys, six emmys, golden globes and oscar nominations to go with it. the author of "trumpty dumpty wanted a crown." it is coming out on tuesday. a follow-up to his "new york times" best seller.dumpty, the age of trump in verse. it's been too long. welcome back. congratulations on the book. how have you been for the last six months? what have you been up to, besides writing a book? >> i've been up to this book. it's been my corona lockdown project. both the writing of the poems and illustrating of them. i made the deal to write the book in december, and i never would have gotten it done. i was working on a tv series with jeff bridges. the whole thing was suspended. i was idle. i was locked down with my wife, and i finally had time to write these poems. got everything done right on

schedule. so it's released in time for the last seven weeks of the electoral campaign. good news. >> as i said, the first edition of this was a big best seller last year. you're back at it again. for people who aren't familiar with sort of how you approach this, it was interesting to hear you say because i know we feel this way. you say the harsh reality is you sit down to think about or write about something, and in the time you've cranked something out, it's ancient history because there's so much news right now. how did you approach this book? >> i approached it as a history book. you have to. i mean, satire is so much of the moment. our great satirists these days are commenting the very night of all these crazy events, and the next morning it's ancient history. so i just -- and i learned this kind of from my first book. i found that even when i was promoting the book and all the events were very recent, people were astonished that the early

figures in the early poems in the book were people they had completely forgotten about. harold hornstein, ronnie jackson. anthony scaramucci. they were already long gone and flamed out, and people flame out fast in the trump administration. so i began to acknowledge, okay, i am writing satire, and in realtime and of the moment, but i'm also writing history. >> yeah, no question about it. and the illustrations are yours, too. people can see on the book cover. that is your work. he does it all, folks. i'm curcurious, john. you said you were working on something with jeff bridges. it was suspended. the arts have been put on hold. you are a great new yorker. you got the news as well as the rest of us that the metropolitan opera canceled its season. will not resume until the fall of 2021 now. how are you looking at the future of the arts, whether it's the metropolitan opera or broadway or movies or tv?

>> it's very, very grim and dire. it's simply inconceivable that new york does not have new york theater right now. and won't for a long time, not to mention the met. our great challenge for the next years is bringing the arts back. it's the same with all industries. i'm on a commission for the american academy of arts and sciences, in fact. i co-chair this commission. the arts commission. and we were examining the state of the arts and how to advocate for and the spotlight in advance of the cause in america and suddenly, the arts in america were in catastrophic crisis. and our entire industry changed radically, like americans for the arts and so many arts organizations. it's now all about just helping artists survive because we are all struggling. i'm one of the very, very few lucky actors.

i'm going back to work in a couple of weeks, but under very weird circumstances. >> it's weird to walk through midtown right now past all the closed and empty broadway theaters and not just think about the actors on the marquee, but all the people who go in to putting on that kind of production. good for you for trying to help out. john, always great to see you. the new book is trumpty dumpty wanted a crown" and it is out on tuesday. good to see you. >> just as a little teaser. i name check none other than joe scarborough in the pages of this book, but in a good way. >> joe got worried for a second there, didn't you? >> yeah. thank you. okay. >> don't worry, joe. you come off fine. >> okay. thank god. thank you so much, john. thank you for being with us. >> thanks, john. good to see you. before we go, i wanted to give a very special shout out to a guy who was beloved around

here who is familiar to anyone who works in this building. he's right there. that's herman pinkney. he's retiring today from his job after 48 years. he started working in this building -- i ran into him yesterday. there are about ten of us in this building. just this giant skyscraper in new york city. herman is here on the job. i ran into him. he said i'm retiring tomorrow. 1972 he started -- by the way, that's three years before "snl" was invented and in this building. and someone who has seen it all. someone who has put a smile on our faces, and when you talk about missing being at work and all your colleagues, i put herman right up there. every morning we'd see him always with a smile. put a smile on our faces, and we will miss him. and he is just one of the many people who work in this building. so grateful for. but congratulations, herman, on your retirement. >> mr. pinkney, thank you for everything that you do.

it's really -- just like we say about our team that works with us here. it's because of people like you that our show and our network and everybody in the building, the community is able to do what they're able to do. and we hope that you're able to do what you want to do in your retirement. you really deserve it. thank you, mr. pinkney. we greatly appreciate it. that does it for us. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it is friday, september 25th. and we begin this morning with a final historic chapter in the extraordinary life of the late justice ruth bader ginsburg. later in this hour, her body will be brought to the u.s. capitol where she will become the first woman and the first jewish person ever to lie in state. congressional leaders will be invited to attend her memorial, temporaril